The majority of this post is excerpted with respect from Warren Adler’s Huffpost blog entry of 8/26/14: The Fate of the Novelist: A Reality Check
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Warren Adler is an independent author best known for The War of the Roses. His 40th novel will be published this year. In his Huffington blog post, Adler summarizes what he’s learned during his many years as an independent author. Below are Mr. Adler’s fifteen conclusions verbatim. I encourage you to visit Huffpost and read all of what Adler has to say on each of these points. This is a must read/don’t miss post for anyone who writes long fiction and is currently published or hopes to be published, indie or otherwise. PLEASE click through.
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ADLER’S CONCLUSIONS
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The print industry as we have known it, is a dead man walking.
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Advances are drying up.
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Amazon, at this point, controls the book market.
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The Netflix subscriber model of content for a monthly fee, like Amazon Unlimited, Oyster, and Scribd, will flame out.
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The quality of content is diminishing, or so it seems.
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Even so called commercial fiction, the kind of books one found on best-seller lists in the middle to the latter part of the last century, is being replaced by genre fiction, which would not have made the cut in those bygone days.
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There are simply too many books being published, especially in fiction.
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In an effort to find an audience, many authors are forced to give away their books for free or at heavily discounted prices.
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Because we are now a global society, books by writers from other countries and cultures have reached flood stage as well.
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There is no end to people who want to write novels. There are over a thousand creative writing college courses and many MFA degrees offered in this discipline.
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There is still great personal satisfaction in self-publishing.
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Many are convinced that their books would make terrific movies, and spend time and money trying to bring their stories to the silver screen.
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While books are being digitally published like popcorn, I do not believe that readers are keeping apace.
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A cottage industry has emerged big-time to distribute, market, publicize and merchandise books, by mostly self-published authors or backlist titles of published authors.
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Expect countless marketing ploys as publishers and authors try new gimmicks to sell their works of fiction online.
Comments?
That’s it for Labor Day Monday.
Go out and make it a week worth writing about!
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Look forward to seeing you on Wednesday for IWSG!
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VR BARKOWSKI 
Interesting. As a writer who makes a living almost exclusively by writing for businesses, I might not be as shocked as some about these developments. I know of a couple other industries that are in upheaval right now, partially due to some of the same forces acting on them (growing independent competition, technology, etc.). If you can learn to capitalize on the confusion, you could come out on top, but the question of how to do just that is the real key I don’t think anyone has a truly firm grip on.
I agree, Steven, and things are still in flux. Change is inevitable, but I assume at some point the pace will slow in publishing so that we are able to make moderately informed, practical choices.
By the sheer nature of economics and human behavior, there will be a slowdown. A bubble popping in the industry will be good for those of us who have the wherewithal to endure the fallout, because it will cleanse the industry of everyone who is just looking for “easy money.”
I remember Warren Adler talking about self-publishing long before it became acceptable (for lack of a better word). I do hope the print industry never goes away. I know it will continue to change to keep up with readers who love technology more. Interesting post.
Happy Labor Day.
Adler is definitely a pioneer, which makes him worth listening too. He not only witnessed the evolution of self-publishing, he was a part of it. I’m still a print girl, too, Mason.
He is right indeed, there just seems so many books out there and traditional publishing is drowning, not sure how to rise above.
Agreed, Pat. The sheer number of books out there is nothing short of intimidating!
HI-ya. No real surprises here. It might be shock ing to some writers who fully expect to be the “next best thing” in the literary world, but writers who try to keep one foot moored in the real world shouldn’t be too surprised. Nor should they be disheartened. Writing has never been a sure thing, or a quick trip to Easy Street. If a writer writes for the sheer joy of writing and out of a desire to tell a tale, I don’t think concerns about success or a lack thereof should get in the way.
Can’t say I was surprised by his points either, Susan, except perhaps the sheer impact of not having “gatekeepers.” Not that traditional publishers were ever arbiters of quality. They were no more than bouncers at the door of publishing: we have too many writers in the room, so it doesn’t matter if you’re charming, witty, and can dance, there’s no space for you here.
I certainly had a few reality checks there about how many books are being published and how many people want to write novels. I feel like a minnow in the ocean. But all of it does make sense.
The sheer number of books out there is daunting, Chrys, and that number is on the rise. All in all, it’s a strange landscape: the number of readers is declining rapidly as the number of books published soars.
I disagree with #4. Not that I know what I’m talking about, but those of us who read a lot can make use of such services and may do so in the future.
I also take exception to #5 and #10. There are a lot of people who want to write novels, but not many do. It may seem like many do because we are in the subsection of the internet where all the people talk about writing. But this is just a small subsection. There are larger sections where people “don’t have the time” or find other such excuses. As for quality, sure, without the traditional filters, more people who aren’t ready are publishing, but new filters will go up to help those of us readers who want to find quality work find that quality work.
It’s an interesting list. Full of doom and gloom, perhaps, but if we pay attention, we can find the opportunity…
I can’t speak to #4 because I try to avoid digital books, so this sort of service doesn’t interest me. However, I do pay a monthly subscription fee to Audible for audio books. That’s certainly a similar model. While #5 and #10 are both subjective, I understand what Adler is saying. From a writer’s standpoint, there are too many books being published. According to Bowker, the number doubled from just over a million in 2009 to two million in 2013. That’s a mind boggling increase in four years. It not only spreads shrinking reader dollars very thin, it has meant the near-extinction of the mid-list author—authors who make a living from their books but aren’t bestsellers. In my opinion, one of the saddest developments in the history of publishing.
I got involved in a conversation online about giving books away, Adler’s #8. I’ve given away thousands of books. In doing so, I’ve found readers. Those arguing with me felt giving books away for free diminished their reputations. I look at it as marketing and advertising that costs me nothing. Will it stop me from being the next big romantic suspense name? No, because it wasn’t going to happen anyway. I’d rather people read my books than not read them. I’ve made fans, received reviews, and sold books. I’m not sure that’s so awful.
As far as his reality, he’s right, and he has a lofty perch from which to preach. Will the wheat separate from the chaff? Some will, most won’t. There’s no telling what makes one book a darling and another a dud. When I figure it out, I’ll let you know.
IMO, #8 is hollow. Adler suggests authors are forced to give away books, which is misleading. As you say, Polly, it’s a choice. But beyond that, free/heavily discounted books are a promotional tool now used not only by authors but by publishers as well. Freebies have become an integral part of the publishing landscape. As I mentioned elsewhere (or maybe here), it doesn’t matter whether someone believes free/low cost book promotions devalue the work. We’ve come too far. The horse has already bolted, and it’s too late to be worrying about closing the barn door. To the hear this issue is still being debated online is discouraging.
Yes, if you figure why one book sells and another doesn’t, please let me know. It won’t make any difference. I’ll still write what I want, but I’d love to know. 🙂
I’ll still write what I want too, VR. I’ve never done very well following the crowds. I hate Adler used the word “forced.” What is sad because of the plethora of books is some excellent ones will remain undiscovered.
Absolutely, Polly. It’s not the free books that worry me. It’s the sheer number of books out there. One million books pubbed in 2009, two million books in 2013? That is mind-boggling.
Everything seems to be a “fad” lately. I’ve only had a few short story publications, and made nothing off those. Makes it hard to keep seriously working at writing a novel when I know it awaits the same fate. But,can’t actually get paid for a hobby, right.
Writing isn’t easy—even bad writing. While I may be wrong, I actually believe those who aren’t meant to write will give up once they realize there’s no return on their investment of time and effort. What I’m not so sure about is whether, as these dabblers fall out, there will be another wave of dilettantes to take their place. If the number of books published continues to grow, and the number of readers continues to decline, the odds are only going to get worse.
I’m happy we have choices about our work now. But those of us who must write will continue, I think, no matter what the industry as a whole does.
I will certainly continue to write, Carol. I wrote before I gave any thought to publishing. I will still be writing when publishing leaves me behind.
Wow, that sounded way more defeatist than I intended, but you get what I mean. 🙂
Great thoughts, and the last one is right on the money. There is an underbelly, a vast network, of people bent on separating the author from her money via various marketing ploys. As to writing for the joy of it, that’s imperative. The rest, if it comes, is nice, but life’s too short to take joy out of the writing process. A writer should please herself first.
True, Silvia. Publishing is rife with opportunities for anyone lacking a moral compass. In part, writers are targeted because the majority of us are introverts who work alone. Second, the industry constantly pits [whether intentionally or not] traditionally published authors against indie-authors. The “disagreement” between Hachette and Amazon is a perfect example. A letter from 900 authors is published in an ad in the NYT on behalf of Hachette. Amazon turns around and calls on indie Authors to lobby against Hachette. Bottom line: no matter how the argument shakes out, authors lose. We essentially have no voice in our own industry. What we do have is the freedom to please ourselves— something I never take for granted.
All of the above are a sad, but true state of things. But I don’t believe none of it will stop us from doing this thing we love: writing. I hope not anyway. It would be such a loss if it did.
I believe that, too, Lauren. I will always write. I wrote before I sought publication, and I will continue to write even if I give up publication as a goal.